Choosing where to launch a solar irrigation product, in six weeks

The challenge

Global Good had a portable, pay-as-you-go solar pump kit for smallholder farmers. Before committing to a launch, it needed to know which African market gave it the best chance, what a viable business model looked like on the ground, and whether farmers would pay.

What we did

• Built a 53-point country evaluation matrix across Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda, combining secondary research, a 10-member expert panel and key informant interviews to compare market conditions and estimate the addressable market in each.
• Assessed 60 potential partner organisations and produced a heat map of the markets best suited to the fund’s objectives.
• For the two selected markets, mapped the full actor landscape (importers, pump distributors, lenders serving smallholders and regulators) and built a contacts database.
• Traced the product’s journey from manufacturer to farmer, and the farmer’s journey through lenders, sellers and drillers, with costs and mark-ups at every step.
• Documented two pump businesses already operating in those markets and built a pricing model for import and distribution.
• Designed a complete willingness-to-pay and price-sensitivity testing plan, so in-market demand validation could start immediately.

Results

• A clear, evidence-backed choice of two launch markets, with the reasons behind it.
• A key finding: the "best" market depends on the fund’s revenue, impact and time objectives, and what the market lacked most was business-model innovation around credit evaluation, more than a new product.
• The six countries evaluated in 2019 have since become the focus of major solar irrigation capital: the Green Climate Fund approved USD 45 million for solar pumps in rural Ethiopia, and the World Bank committed USD 50 million to solar irrigation across sub-Saharan Africa.